DRC: Elections Readiness – DREF Operation (MDRCD041) – Democratic Republic of the Congo

Description of the Event

Approximate date of impact

The key dates in the electoral process are as follows:

– From 18.11 to 18.12.23: Election campaign

– 20.12.23: Election Day

– 31.12.23: Publication of the provisional results of the presidential and parliamentary elections

– 10.01.24: Publication of the final results

Provide any updates in the situation since the field report and explain what is expected to happen.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is preparing to organize its fourth electoral cycle after the democratic transition of 2003-2006. In recent years, the country has faced a wave of protests linked to the 2018 presidential elections. This electoral crisis is one of the sources of the various contacts affecting the DRC, in particular armed conflicts, population uprisings, ethnic conflicts, population movements, and so on.

Fighting in the East of the country and in other regions has deprived more than a million citizens of their voting cards. The opposition, faced with increased repression from the government and an independent national electoral commission (CENI) that it sees as favorable to the ruling party, is tempted to reject every stage of the process. At the same time, the risk of localized violence is high. A close or disputed presidential result could also lead to a national crisis, as was the case in 2018.

On 31 January 2023, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CNIEN) announced the end of voter identification and registration operations. However, CNIEN’s figures show that registration rates are much higher than expected, and opposition presidential candidates are already talking about the risk of « cheating » .

Other catalysts are raising fears of violent post-election demonstrations, notably the debates on the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), which some candidates believe is not truly independent, the quality of the voters’ cards, the unsatisfactory voter registration process, the unstable and volatile social climate currently affecting the country, and recent reports of the loss of some thirty CENI agents.

In the week of 13 November 2023, inter-community violence broke out in MALEMBA NKULU, a locality in the province of Haut – Katanga. The situation was triggered by the murder of a motorbike taxi driver by alleged bandits identified as nationals of the Kasai region. In retaliation, the victim’s colleagues attacked members of the Kasai community living in Malemba Nkulu. Tension between the communities of Katanga, the region of origin of one of the opposition presidential candidates, and Kasai, the region of origin of the current president, is simmering just a few days before the elections.

In view of the above, there could be situations of unrest linked to the electoral process in particular:

– Clashes between supporters of political parties during the campaign, on election day and after the results were announced.

– Population movements in stable areas and accentuation in the east of the country.

– Extension of armed conflicts to other areas during the campaign and after the elections.

– Jubilation and frustration following the publication of the results.

– Worsening social situation (difficult access to health centers’, markets, water, electricity and internet cuts, etc.).

– Risk of calls for demonstrations by political parties.

– Inter-community violence,

The NS must be prepared and have the capacity to deal with the unfolding situation and potential impact in line with the scenario analysis in its contingency plan.

Sources: https://www.bbc.com/afrique/articles/cqvplq05jy5o https://www.crisisgroup.org/fr/africa/great-lakes/democratic-republic-congo/312-elections-en-rd-congo-limiter-les-risques-deviolence.