ACAPS Anticipatory note – Risk of violence in the upcoming general elections (18 December 2023) – Democratic Republic of the Congo

DRC general elections trigger heightened levels of violence, leading to increasing protection threats, population displacement, and food insecurity.

About this report

Aim: this report presents a risk analysis of violence related to the general elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), set to take place on 20 December 2023. The report provides a brief of the current context and humanitarian situation in the country, maps out factors that could lead to violence during or after the electoral period (triggers), and identifies the potential humanitarian impacts of such violence (hazard).

ACAPS’ risk analysis aims to enable humanitarian decision makers to anticipate potential changes with humanitarian consequences. Explaining how situations might develop and helping to understand their impact can support decision makers and responders in planning and preparedness, improving the overall response.

Scope: this report focuses on possible increased violence levels during the DRC electoral process. The context and dynamics of conflict and violence in the DRC are complex and extend beyond the upcoming elections. The electoral process may act as a catalyst for conflict escalation or spread, but particularly in eastern DRC, the process interacts with other factors, whose detailed analysis is beyond the scope of this report.

Method: ACAPS based this analysis on its risk methodology and a secondary data review of publicly available sources.

The ACAPS risk methodology defines risk as the probability of a hazard or multiple hazards materialising, combined with the estimated impact of such hazards. The associated risk level (low, medium, or high) rises with the hazard’s probability of occurring and the severity of its expected impact.

The impact is the predicted overall humanitarian consequence of a hazard materialising. It can comprise an increase in the number of people needing assistance, the severity of their needs, or both. The impact is based on hazard exposure and intensity, as well as the population’s vulnerability and coping capacity. ACAPS classifies impact on a five-point scale: very low, low, moderate, significant, or major.

Probability is the chance of a hazard materialising. ACAPS assesses probability on a fivepoint scale: very low, low, medium, high, or very high. Probability and impact levels are not mathematically calculated but assigned through expert judgement based on contextual knowledge.

Limitations: risk analysis focuses on negative outcomes and may not adequately consider the potential benefits or opportunities of different events. Information and data gaps limit the analysis. The emergence of new information and the influence of factors not accounted for may change the analysis offered. While we seek to ensure that all information is current at the time of publication, the fluidity of the situation means significant changes can occur quickly.