Will the Niger Crisis Pose a Threat to Turkey in Africa?

T

he coup in Niger has the potential to create significant problems for regional security. Sharing a 1,500-kilometer border with Nigeria, Niger also neighbors Benin. At the intersection of these three countries, there is the presence of the terrorist organization Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which might seek to fill the power vacuum that may emerge in the region.

The existence of such a risk has the potential to affect North and West Africa, and could pose a threat to Turkey’s interests in the region, especially in Libya. These risks could also affect Turkey’s trade with Africa, which has been developing and gaining momentum in recent years.

Turkey’s increasing engagement in the region

Turkey’s trade with the African continent is estimated at about $35 billion with Sub-Saharan African countries accounting for $12.9 billion. Moreover, according to TurkStat data, Turkey’s trade with West Africa is estimated at $6.5 billion and $4.1 billion with the Sahel region, which includes Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea.

Graph 1 and Graph 2 show the details of this trade. With the exception of Eritrea and Sudan, all countries are in the West African sub-regional system, while the countries shown in orange are also in the Sahel sub-regional system.